Electricity consumption scenarios to 2050
In the present study will be examined the results of the bottom-up model of partial equilibrium TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM1 System / EFOM Energy Flow Optimization Model), a model generator for local, national or multi regional economies finalized to the analysis of whole energy systems, of electricity generation or individual final uses sectors (electricity consumption, heat distribution, transport, civil, etc.). TIMES is applied to the system of power generation and end-use. The model belongs to the family of models MARKAL (Market Allocation) and so-called 3e models (energy, economy, environment). TIMES was developed by the IEA (International Energy Agency) under the program ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program) and is recognized by the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change).
The Italian-TIMES model developed by ISPRA simulate the national energy system, with attention to the environmental impact of energy use. This report is based on ISPRA and Terna collaboration in order to study the evolution of electricity consumption in the long term to 2030 and 2050. In particular, the study examines the end-use of electricity with a time horizon to 2030 and the impact on electricity consumption of the wide deployment of some technologies as electric cars, heat pumps for heating in winter, summer air conditioning and industrial electric-technologies to 2050. The analysis and the results are reported at sectorial level : energy, industry, commercial, residential, transport and agriculture.
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