“CO2 emission factors in electricity sector and decomposition analysis of emissions”
The main task of this study is to analyze the change of CO2 emissions from electricity generation during the period 1990-2010 through the decomposition of driver factors. Two techniques of decomposition analysis have been considered (Structural decomposition analysis e Index Decomposition Analysis) and the index approach has been applied to structural decomposition analysis. Moreover CO2 emission factors for electricity generation and consumption have been calculated.
Emission factors for electricity generation and electricity consumption are useful tools to plan and monitor projects that aim to reduce GHG emissions in electricity sector either as concerns the strategies of electricity production at national level, through increase of renewable share and fuel mix change, or energy saving measures at user level, through electricity saving and increase of final use efficiency. The reduction potential can be assessed through the knowledge of emission factors and the role of different factors that contribute to reduce emissions.
CO2 emissions has decreased from 126.4 Mt in 1990 to 118.4 Mt in 2010, while the gross electricity generation increase in the same period from 216.9 TWh to 302.1 TWh; so the emission factors for electricity generation decrease sharply in the period 1990-2010. Decomposition analysis shows that technological efficiency of electricity generation in power plants plays the dominant role in decreasing of CO2 emissions in the considered period, followed by the use of renewable sources and fuel mix shift toward low carbon fuels. The year by year decomposition analysis and the trend of emission factors show that the increasing share of renewable sources is the main driver factor in decreasing of CO2 emissions from electricity generation in the last years. Moreover renewable sources deployment represents the factor with the greater potential to reduce CO2 emissions in the electricity sector for the next years.
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